2024 NFL Predictions: Fantasy's Underrated Stars and Duds at Every Position (2024)

The 2024 NFL season is sure to spawn several surprises in the fantasy football world.

Disappointments, too.

The pattern plays out rinse-and-repeat style during every campaign. Some players elevate, others taper off.

Seasoned fantasy managers know these changes are coming, they just don't always know which players will be involved. That's the point of this piece, as we're spotlighting players at each of the four skill positions who are being under- and overvalued based on their average draft position (ADP) courtesy of FantasyPros.

Underrated: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 100)

Five quarterbacks managed more fantasy points than Purdy last season. Double that number, and you'll find the amount of signal-callers now being selected ahead of him.

His play style may seem more solid than spectacular, but in his offensive ecosystem, that can still make him special. With Kyle Shanahan calling the shots, and playmakers like Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and (for now, at least) Brandon Aiyuk around, Purdy is well-positioned for success. Last season, he completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.

Overrated: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 21)

Allen is almost universally regarded as the top quarterback on the draft board. You can generally question the value of taking any signal-caller this high, but there are reasons to worry about him in particular.

Last season, he threw his fewest touchdowns in four seasons (29) and his most interceptions (18). And he did that before Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis exited over the offseason. This passing game may not have the same zip, which puts added pressure on Allen to perform as a runner. On that note, his 4.7 yards per carry tied for the second-fewest of his career, while his 15 rushing touchdowns felt totally fluky for someone who had never previously tallied more than nine.

Underrated: Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 78)

Want to hear the list of running backs who had more fantasy points than Mostert last season? Christian McCaffrey. That's it. That's the list.

Yet, Mostert is now being taken as 25th running back off the board. Huh? While it's entirely reasonable to bet against him scoring 21 touchdowns again, this is taking things way too far. With his quick processing and rapid burst, he'll remain a prominent piece of this explosive offense. Even with De'Von Achane knocking on the door, Mostert won't get left behind.

Overrated: Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 16)

Etienne started strong last season, but he became way too hit or miss down the stretch. In Weeks 1 through 8, he averaged 22.3 touches and 106.2 scrimmage yards. Starting in Week 9, those numbers dropped to 16.3 and 70.5, respectively.

It's very possible things could keep heading south. The Jaguars could get more pass-happy after adding Gabe Davis and rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr., plus they're looking to lighten the load on Etienne by giving 2023 third-rounder Tank Bigsby more opportunities. Add in a shaky offensive line, and there are just too many questions for someone being drafted this high.

Underrated: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 70)

Something has clearly shaken the fantasy community's faith in Godwin. We'll go out on a limb and guess it's the fact he has just five receiving catches to show for the last two campaigns combined.

That's not an insignificant sample, obviously, but it still feels in the realm of fluky for someone who averaged seven touchdown catches over the previous four seasons. It also doesn't align with his usage rate, as he's had 80-plus receptions and more than 1,000 receiving yards in four of the past five seasons. If his touchdowns return to their old rate, he could be one of fantasy's best bargains.

Overrated: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 18)

Is Adams actually quarterback-proof? The Raiders seem determined to make him prove it. If the quarterback battle between journeyman Gardner Minshew and 2023 fourth-round pick Adian O'Connell was set to music, the soundtrack would just be the sad trombone sound playing on a loop.

Maybe Adams is good enough to overcome that, but we have our concerns. Or at least more concerns than those who are comfortable taking Adams in this spot. Between the quarterback situation, the run-first nature of this offense and the potential involvement of first-round rookie tight end Brock Bowers, we'd advise avoiding Adams at this draft cost.

Underrated: Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 97)

The Raiders spent the 13th overall pick on Bowers, and they could look to see an immediate return on that investment. He arrives with a pro-ready set of receiving skills, including terrific hands and explosive ability after the catch.

His quarterback situation is shaky, and he lines up in the same offense as target-hog Davante Adams, and it's possible none of that matters. That's how good Bowers is. He'll be a safety blanket for whichever signal-caller Las Vegas deploys, and he could be the top option in the passing game if the Raiders make a future-focused Adams trade at some point.

Overrated: Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (ADP: 26)

LaPorta is a tremendous talent who looked tremendous in his rookie season (86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns). Is he definitely the top tight end in fantasy now?

We're not convinced. Not when there are so many other mouths to feed in this offense, like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and (fingers crossed) Jameson Williams. LaPorta's 2023 season would have landed closer to really good than great, too, if it hadn't been for that 10 touchdown tally. If he can't sustain that scoring production, then he probably can't justify this price point.